Drug Firms Face Billions in Losses in ’11 as Patents End

[Julieanne]

By DUFF WILSON (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/duff_wilson/index.html?inline=nyt-per)
March 6, 2011

At the end of November, Pfizer (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/pfizer_inc/index.html?inline=nyt-org) stands to lose a $10-billion-a-year revenue stream when the patent on its blockbuster cholesterol (http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/nutrition/cholesterol/overview.html?inline=nyt-classifier) drug Lipitor (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/health/diseasesconditionsandhealthtopics/lipitor_drug/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) expires and cheaper generics begin to cut into the company’s huge sales.

Pfizer could lose $10 billion in annual revenue when the patent on Lipitor, the cholesterol-cutting drug, expires in November. The loss poses a daunting challenge for Pfizer, one shared by nearly every major pharmaceutical company. This year alone, because of patent expirations, the drug industry will lose control over more than 10 megamedicines whose combined annual sales have neared $50 billion.

This is a sobering reversal for an industry that just a few years ago was the world’s most profitable business sector but is now under pressure to reinvent itself and shed its dependence on blockbuster drugs. And it casts a spotlight on the problems drug companies now face: a drought of big drug breakthroughs and research discoveries; pressure from insurers and the government to hold down prices; regulatory vigilance and government investigations; and thousands of layoffs in research and development.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/07/business/07drug.html?pagewanted=all

[Julieanne]

How sad! :sarcasm:

[Islander]

It's tempting to interpret this as good news. "Ha! The power of Big Pharma is failing." I'm afraid it constitutes more of a threat in several forms.

• Expect to see more pressure and coercion on vaccines, especially the flu vaccine which can be targeted at virtually everyone.

• Expect greater fraud in drug trials, leading to more dangerous, unproven drugs. Companies have to submit only two successful trials to the FDA to gain approval. Thus they can cherry-pick two good ones and discard the failures.

• Expect to see a strenuous thrust toward co-opting traditional supplements as prescription-only drugs. We've already seen this with vitamin B6, although supplement makers have found a workaround. Yesterday's SWAT-team raid on the Rawsome co-op (massive overkill, to send a message) is a clear indication, if any were needed, of the FDA's position on natural health.

This industry is not going to go down without a fight. Best to be prepared.