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Thread: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Boston

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    Veteran Member Stoneharbor's Avatar
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    Default Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Boston

    Travis P. Baggett, MD, MPH1; Harrison Keyes, MPAS, PA-C1; Nora Sporn, MA, MPH2; et al Jessie M. Gaeta, MD1
    JAMA. Published online April 27, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.6887

    In the United States, 567 715 people were homeless on a single night in January 2019.1 The congregate nature and hygienic challenges of shelter life create the potential for rapid transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in this vulnerable population.
    On March 13, 2020, the Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program (BHCHP), in partnership with city and state public health agencies and community partners, rolled out a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) response strategy that included respiratory symptom screening at shelter front doors, expedited referrals for SARS-CoV-2 testing and isolation for those with respiratory symptoms, dedicated treatment settings for individuals with positive test results, and contact tracing of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

    Read more: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765378?guestAccessKey=3fce21f0-1d22-4e17-a2b3-fbaaf8e8653a&utm_source=silverchair&utm_campaign=j ama_network&utm_content=covid_weekly_highlights&ut m_medium=email

    There are also similar antibody spot testing reports you can find that were done other places in Mass, and in California. Those tests were done in more average-income neighborhoods.
    Last edited by Islander; 05-03-20 at 02:32 PM.

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    Veteran Member Stoneharbor's Avatar
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    Default Re: Spot Coronavirus antibody tests on homeless - amazing results

    Here's the results of a spot test done by University of Southern California in conjunction with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. Tests done by Stanford University and in Massachusetts confirm the same type of results, showing around 50 times more positive tests for antibodies than was thought before.

    https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody...ngeles-county/

    The Massachusetts random test showed a 30% infection rate.

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/thir...dy-coronavirus

    What these results lead me to believe is that the clamor recently for "massive testing" that has the government now vowing to test millions per week is a shot so wide of the mark that it can't be an innocent mistake, but more likely an intentional aim to divert attention from the fact that in a few weeks, the virus will have passed over most of the population unnoticed by the majority and that no vaccination is required. This is the last thing big-Pharma wants to be widely known. Yet what seems of great value at the moment is to have more of the spot tests to see what percent of the population is now past risk and already immune in some different neighborhoods. This would lead, as the next few weeks unfold, to a collective sigh of relief.

    People are bothered by the shut-downs, but to an unreal degree, people are still worried about contracting a disease described as quite deadly. Knowing that, based on statistics, you have half a chance of already being immune, and even more so in the coming weeks would be liberating for the population, even if a lock-down continued.

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    Veteran Member Mr. Wizard's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    According to a number of experts, like scientists from the University of California San Francisco, having had COVID-19 and recovered DOES NOT mean one has immunity against getting it again. Experts claim even in those with antibodies they don't know the "parameters" of immunity--does it last a few months, or years, or forever? People, for example, who get the flu will build up certain antibodies, but are not protected against the exact flu strain the following year because immunity doesn't last that long. In addition, because there are other coronaviruses, like the ones that cause the common cold and the annual influenza virus, experts can't be 100% sure whether the serology tests are picking up antibodies for COVID-19 or some other type of coronavirus. Bottom line: based on everything I'm learning, I believe it's premature to assume that everyone who has contracted and survived COVID-19 is immune from getting it again.

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    Veteran Member Stoneharbor's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Wizard View Post
    According to a number of experts, like scientists from the University of California San Francisco, having had COVID-19 and recovered DOES NOT mean one has immunity against getting it again. Experts claim even in those with antibodies they don't know the "parameters" of immunity--does it last a few months, or years, or forever? People, for example, who get the flu will build up certain antibodies, but are not protected against the exact flu strain the following year because immunity doesn't last that long. In addition, because there are other coronaviruses, like the ones that cause the common cold and the annual influenza virus, experts can't be 100% sure whether the serology tests are picking up antibodies for COVID-19 or some other type of coronavirus. Bottom line: based on everything I'm learning, I believe it's premature to assume that everyone who has contracted and survived COVID-19 is immune from getting it again.
    Do you have some links to this information Mr. Wizard? It would be fantastic to see a study on this.

    Logically it makes no sense whatsoever. I mean, if a strain of a virus doesn't itself die off, then we actually have millions of different threatening viruses on the planet that we could, and logically should, be picking up and suffering from every single flu/cold season. Something terribly wrong with this. So if a virus survives to threaten us again and again, as soon as our antibodies deplete, then we are threatened by so many that viral infection statistics would be climbing year after year. Yet, the statistics are about the same for seasonal colds year after year, especially if you use a moving average for smoothing.

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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    Just spitballing here, but I can think of a couple of reasons why we aren't continually attacked by virulent viruses. One is that although wildlife are heavy carriers of viruses, either we don't come in contact with them or they are not easily transferred to humans. Another possibility: that plagues, like floods, come in roughly hundred-year cycles. Perhaps we build up some kind of tolerance that persists over generations but eventually wears off? Perhaps overcrowding and poor nutrition have some influence on our immunity? Just wild-ass guesses.
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    Veteran Member Mr. Wizard's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    Quote Originally Posted by Stoneharbor View Post
    Do you have some links to this information Mr. Wizard? It would be fantastic to see a study on this.

    Stoneharbor: Experts at UC San Francisco conclude this: "Experts generally believe that if you develop antibodies to the novel coronavirus, then you have at least temporary immunity from reinfection, although they stress that this is still unproven and that the parameters of that immunity are still unknown." Read the whole story here: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/04/41...ng-coronavirus

    Experts at WHO conclude this: "“Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serologic test can show that an individual is immune or is protected from reinfection,” the WHO’s Maria Van Kerkhove said at a briefing last week.
    Read the whole story here:
    https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/


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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    Does this information not lead to an understanding that the search for a Covid vaccine necessarily is a fruitless search? If natural antibodies fail to convey immunity to future viral infection, how can any vaccine possibly become effective?

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    Veteran Member Mr. Wizard's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    At this point, the whole "antibodies..to...immunity" issue is a BIG Unknown. I think the experts don't all agree on this issue, but most are saying basically "it's just too soon to know for sure." Eventually, they will know, but anyone saying that immunity is a "sure thing" just because you've recovered from COVID-19 is perhaps a bit premature. The evidence thus far has not proven beyond a shadow of doubt that this is true.

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    Veteran Member Stoneharbor's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Wizard View Post
    Stoneharbor: Experts at UC San Francisco conclude this: "Experts generally believe that if you develop antibodies to the novel coronavirus, then you have at least temporary immunity from reinfection, although they stress that this is still unproven and that the parameters of that immunity are still unknown." Read the whole story here: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/04/41...ng-coronavirus

    Experts at WHO conclude this: "“Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serologic test can show that an individual is immune or is protected from reinfection,” the WHO’s Maria Van Kerkhove said at a briefing last week.
    Read the whole story here:
    https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/


    Thanks, Mr. Wizard. This is helpful, as it has a lot about the current state of the science with respect to COVID-19 as a special case. There's no proof that it is different from other viruses in respect to mutating to evade encountering antibodies. However, without testing over time, it may fairly be also said that there's no proof that COVID-19 can be protected against for life by the antibodies we develop to it. Though unlikely, I agree that remains to be seen.

    The WHO and CDC and anyone else interested in keeping the door open to selling the population on inoculation are going to present the situation in this light, meaning that we have to be wary of a second infection. However, in your 2nd article, right above your quote from Van Kerkhove, Dr. Fauci said

    “It’s a reasonable assumption that this virus is not changing very much. If we get infected now and it comes back next February or March we think this person is going to be protected.”

    I did a little research on the effectiveness of antibodies in general. And in general, they tend to last longer than the viral strain they were developed to combat, thus they are essentially good for life. Here's an article on Mumps antibodies which concludes that way:

    https://www.urmc.rochester.edu/encyc...mumps_antibody

    It contained this summary:

    "If IgG antibodies are found, it means you have had a previous infection or were vaccinated against the mumps. These antibodies are not typically found early after you are exposed to the virus, but appear over time and remain in your body for life."

    Here's an article on vaccines in general that touches on the immunity offered by a vaccine. It definitely admits a vaccine offers only short term protection, but qualifies that by saying it's usually "long enough" and adds that when immunity from a vaccine fails, the body often comes through naturally with antibodies that offer sufficient protection.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019...-people-longer

    Disclosure: I admit I do not trust the WHO or CDC to guide me through life, as their business models don't give credence to the immune system's potential for fully protecting us from the lowly virus. So I look with distrust at their publications these days which are reserving as much fear potential as possible for COVID-19.

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    Veteran Member Stoneharbor's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    Quote Originally Posted by Maurya View Post
    Does this information not lead to an understanding that the search for a Covid vaccine necessarily is a fruitless search? If natural antibodies fail to convey immunity to future viral infection, how can any vaccine possibly become effective?
    Maurya, you make a good point in support of the immunity our bodies offer. You also made me realize something else: Every time they immunize a person for a virus, and the person seems protected, they are assuming that the injected substances provided all the protection and dismiss the possibility that the immune system took care of, or added to the protection. There's hardly a person in the world that doesn't have the capacity to form antibodies. Those that can't tend to die in infancy.

    For probably 1/10 the money spent developing even a single vaccine, medical science could provide the vitamin/mineral protocol and pay for providing every individual in the country with a white paper on how to take supplements and protect against every virus and a lot of other diseases for as long as we all shall live. Talk about inefficiency! The current system is not about health.

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    Veteran Member Mr. Wizard's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    Quote Originally Posted by Stoneharbor View Post
    ..."Dr. Fauci said “It’s a reasonable assumption that this virus is not changing very much. If we get infected now and it comes back next February or March we think this person is going to be protected.”
    The Federal Los Alamos National Laboratory announced today that coronavirus causing COVID-19 has mutated. The virus that emerged out of Wuhan, China several months ago is not the same virus we are dealing with today. According to the study, 14 different mutations have been identified, with one dominant strain affecting the U.S. since mid-March. Read more here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-...udy-finds.html

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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    Funny, ha ha. I have read three separate sources today that manage to identify three different totals for the number of mutations out there. If I were a bookie, I'd start making bank on some of these numbers!

    Stoneharbor, you mention a couple of routes by which a lifetime immunity for mumps is acquired. I have to question that. Children who had mumps in their early years did in fact acquire immunity for life. This is not so with the vaccines. In fact, if you follow current trends, it appears that the mumps vaccine in use at the present is itself a failure. Parents are being accused of negligence when in fact the records show that the kids with mumps were actually vaccinated.
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    Veteran Member Stoneharbor's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Bo

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Wizard View Post
    The Federal Los Alamos National Laboratory announced today that coronavirus causing COVID-19 has mutated. The virus that emerged out of Wuhan, China several months ago is not the same virus we are dealing with today. According to the study, 14 different mutations have been identified, with one dominant strain affecting the U.S. since mid-March. Read more here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-...udy-finds.html
    Yes, I read the paper and replied regarding it under your thread on Mutation. Numbers of mutations and mutation rates don't matter (well, except for someone trying to design a vaccine to handle several strains). As I cited there, here's a bit on why:

    https://journals.plos.org/plosbiolog...l.pbio.3000003

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